MIKE'S PICKS

Sports handicapping advice and picks from a future professional sports handicapper.

Name:
Location: Lighthouse Point, Florida, United States

I am a corporate attorney with an MBA in finance. I've practiced since 1993. Currently I work for a high-tech company that focuses primarily on intellectual property development, technology licensing and venture capital transactions. In my spare time I am studying several so-called "advantage play" techniques as they relate to sports handicapping. I hope to someday pursue sports handicapping full time. Sportsbook managers, consider yourselves duly warned.

Tuesday, August 02, 2005

Advice: NFL Key Totals

A little while back we looked at key numbers in the NFL. (See "Advice: NFL Key Numbers"). In addition to key point spread numbers, there are also key totals; that is, total game scores that occur in disproportionately high amounts.

Looking at data from the 2000-2004 NFL seasons, the key totals are:

37(5%), 41(5%), 51(4%), 27(3.5%), 38(3%), 33(3%)

What does this mean? Well, precisely in the way that one tries to avoid a -3.5 (-110) when playing on a favorite, one tries to avoid a 37.5 (-110) when playing an "over." If you like the "under" in a game then shop, shop, shop and try your best to avoid playing an "under" 40.5 (-110) when a 41 (-110) or, better yet, a 41.5 (-110) is available.

Memorize the key totals as you've memorized the key numbers, learn how to stay on the right side of these key totals (as you've done with the key numbers), and you will give yourself a significantly better chance of making a winning (or pushing) play.

Suckers bet favorites at -7.5 (-110), suckers play "overs" at 37.5 (-110) .... but YOU are not a sucker.

Next time we'll talk a little bit about WHEN to make your totals bets (Monday? right before the game on Sunday?). Timing your plays can also improve your winning rate.

Good luck!

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