Sports handicapping advice and picks from a future professional sports handicapper.

Location: Lighthouse Point, Florida, United States

I am a corporate attorney with an MBA in finance. I've practiced since 1993. Currently I work for a high-tech company that focuses primarily on intellectual property development, technology licensing and venture capital transactions. In my spare time I am studying several so-called "advantage play" techniques as they relate to sports handicapping. I hope to someday pursue sports handicapping full time. Sportsbook managers, consider yourselves duly warned.

Tuesday, August 09, 2005

Results: NFL Preseason 8-8-2005

Falcons +8.5/Bears +7.5 (6 team, 2 point teaser) comes through. The teaser involves 2 teams but it is only one ticket, so we grade that at 1 win at the applicable price. In this case, we got "even" money on the teaser, so we grade this as a one 1-unit win.

Current YTD Record on Posted Selections:
NFL Preseason: 1 Wins, 1 Loss, 0 Pushes. Bankroll (Units) = Even.
MLB: 7 Wins, 6 Losses, 0 Pushes. Bankroll (Units) = +1.77.

Saturday, August 06, 2005

Results: NFL Preseason 8-5-2005

A 27 point second quarter blows up the "under" play. Falcons 27, Colts 21. The first teaser of the year stays alive. Possibly some MLB picks coming later today, if I have time to update the baseball model.

Current YTD Record on Posted Selections
NFL Preseason: 0 Wins, 1 Loss, 0 Pushes. Bankroll = -1.00 Units
MLB: 7 Wins, 6 Losses, 0 Pushes. Bankroll = +1.77 Units.

Friday, August 05, 2005

Picks: NFL Preseason 8-5-2005

My first two NFL selections of the year will involve the first preseason game. First, I'm going to play the Colts/Falcons to go Under 42 (-105). Notwithstanding the NFL's desire to show off its product in Japan, I think we'll see very little Peyton or Vick. Also, customarily, the defenses are usually much further ahead in terms of preparation than the offenses at this early stage and both teams are tired due to the long flight and time-zone differential. Plus, I like the number. The total "42" puts me past several of the key totals.

In addition to this, I'm using the Falcons +8.5 as one-half of a two team, six point teaser. The other half will be taking the Bears +7.5 over the Dolphins. I don't understand why the Dolphins would be a favorite in Canton. In any case, that's play #2 for the year, and this two team, six point teaser is priced at (Even).

Current YTD Record on Posted Selections:
NFL Preseason: 0 Wins, 0 Losses, 0 Pushes. Bankroll = Even.
MLB: 7 Wins, 6 Losses, 0 Pushes. Bankroll = +1.77 Units.

Wednesday, August 03, 2005

Advice: NFL Season Wins O/U Prices

I've completed my own season wins O/U model for each team in the NFL, complete with estimated win totals and "true" moneyline prices. Of course, they are subject to continual revision and change.

As a courtesy to my readers, if you are thinking about playing a particular season wins price (e.g. Should I play the Steelers Under 10 (-140)?, etc.), post a comment as to what you're thinking about playing, and what prices are being offered, and I'll let you know what I think of it.

I'm hoping to start stepping up the "Advice" posts soon; NFL season is fast-approaching. I will probably post my own season wins selections - and subject them to public grading - later on.

Tuesday, August 02, 2005

Advice: NFL Key Totals

A little while back we looked at key numbers in the NFL. (See "Advice: NFL Key Numbers"). In addition to key point spread numbers, there are also key totals; that is, total game scores that occur in disproportionately high amounts.

Looking at data from the 2000-2004 NFL seasons, the key totals are:

37(5%), 41(5%), 51(4%), 27(3.5%), 38(3%), 33(3%)

What does this mean? Well, precisely in the way that one tries to avoid a -3.5 (-110) when playing on a favorite, one tries to avoid a 37.5 (-110) when playing an "over." If you like the "under" in a game then shop, shop, shop and try your best to avoid playing an "under" 40.5 (-110) when a 41 (-110) or, better yet, a 41.5 (-110) is available.

Memorize the key totals as you've memorized the key numbers, learn how to stay on the right side of these key totals (as you've done with the key numbers), and you will give yourself a significantly better chance of making a winning (or pushing) play.

Suckers bet favorites at -7.5 (-110), suckers play "overs" at 37.5 (-110) .... but YOU are not a sucker.

Next time we'll talk a little bit about WHEN to make your totals bets (Monday? right before the game on Sunday?). Timing your plays can also improve your winning rate.

Good luck!